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Hot Machine, Cold Machine
Players often think that a machine which hasn't paid out for some time (a "cold machine") is due to pay out soon and conversely, a machine which has been paying a lot (a "hot machine"), has to take back some of the money which it has given. They attribute this to the Law of Averages. Well, let me tell you: The Law of Averages is the most misunderstood concept in gambling. In fact, THERE IS NO SUCH LAW.
The machines are powered by a random number generator which selects cards or symbols to appear on the screen. That random number generator is stupid. It does not have a memory of previous events and each sequence of numbers is completely independent on the previous sequence. Sure, the statisticians which design the games can give you a percentage payback prediction but that prediction is based on a cycle which could last months or even years. In other words, simply because a machine has taken a lot of money from players this week, there is no guarantee that the machine will pay next week.
Let's simplify the situation. Look at a dice with 6 numbers. Each number has a chance of 1 in 6 of coming up. Assume you threw the dice 5 times and the numbers 1 to 5 each occurred once. Does that mean the number 6 will come up on the next throw? Of course not! Each number still has the same chance of coming up on every throw of the dice.
Understanding that the gambling machines are stupid and have no brains is the first step in ensuring a winning day at the casino. Instead of looking out for machines which people "feed", rather read our forthcoming tip on machine selection.
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How to win at Blackjack
KBlackjack is one of the most popular casino games primarily due to the fact that, when played correctly, the odds of winning the game are about even with the house.
Computer studies have been done on the game of blackjack and millions of hands have been analyzed to come up with a basic formula for how to play your hand in any given situation. The main principle that these decisions are based on is the dealer's up card because, remember that the dealer has no say in whether or not he takes a card - he must play by the rules that require him to draw a card until he has a total of 17 or more. Now, according to these computer calculations the dealer will bust more often when his up card is a 2,3,4,5 or 6 and he will complete more hands when his up card is a 7,8,9,10-value card or an ace. Take a look at the following chart that shows how each up-card affects the dealer's chance of busting:
Chance The Dealer's Up Card Will Bust
|
2 |
35% |
|
3
|
38% |
|
40% |
25 - 1 |
|
5 |
43% |
|
6 |
42% |
|
7 |
26% |
|
8 |
24% |
|
9 |
23% |
|
10 |
21% |
|
Ace |
11% |
As you can see, the dealer will bust most often when he has a 5 or 6 as his up-card
and he will bust the least amount, approximately 11% of the time, when his up-card is an ace. This means it's to your advantage to stand more often when the dealer's up-card is a 2 through 6 and hope that the dealer will draw cards that make him bust. It also means that when the dealer's up-card is a 7 through ace he will complete more of his hands and in that situation you should draw cards until you have a total of 17 or more.
Computers were also used to run simulations on millions of hands to determine what are the best decisions a player should make in given situations. These decisions are called Basic Strategy. The rules of Basic Strategy are simple and easy to learn. However, remember that no Casino will ever let you play with an instruction sheet on how to take their money. You should commit these rules to memory and keep them a closely guarded secret.
Will we give them to you?
You bet we will! But first you have to be a member. Enrol in our membership program, the Royal Court Club and after we have processed you details (Currently done manually), we will send you a welcome newsletter containing the basic strategy chart. If you are an existing member please contact us on email (go to contacts tab) and send us an email requesting basic strategy tips. Remember to include your Name, Surname and membership number.
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How to win at Raise 'Em Poker
This new game has hit the world by storm and has surpassed Caribbean Stud Poker as the favourite poker casino game. It is also known as "Let it Ride". It is a fair game for the player and your odds of winning will be improved drastically if you keep the following in mind.
Optimal play in Raise 'Em is a matter of deciding if you are going to bet at the two decision points in the hand. Let's break down the decisions, keeping in mind that 10-J-Q-K-A are "high" cards and a "skip" is a card missing from a Straight:
Three cards up:
Place a bet on the first box if you have:
- a paying hand: High-Card Pair or Three-of-a-Kind
- three consecutive, same-suit cards valued 3-4-5 or better
- three of a Straight Flush with one skip and at least one high card (e.g.. 8-9-J but not 7-8-J)
- three of a Straight Flush with two skips and at least two high cards (eg. 8-J-Q but not 7-9-J)
Four cards up:
Place an additional bet on the second box if you have:
- a paying hand: High-Card Pair, Three-of-a-Kind or Two Pair
- four of any Flush
- four of a Straight, no skips
- four high cards
Follow these rules and you should never be at the casino's mercy.
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Can I win at Slots?
The answer is a resounding yes...and no. First the “no” part: in simplest terms a slot machine makes money for the casino by paying out less money than it takes in. Therefore, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that if you stand in front of a slot machine and continue to pump in your money, eventually, you will lose it all.
Gee, sounds kind of depressing, doesn’t it? Well, cheer up because now we go on to the “yes” part. Yes, you can win money on slot machines by using a little knowledge, practicing some money management and, mostly, having lots of luck.
First, the knowledge part. You need to know what kind of player you are and how much risk you are willing to take. Do you want to go for the giant progressive jackpot that could make you a billionaire in an instant or would you be content walking away just a few Shillings ahead? Playing the big progressive machines returns you less money than non progressive machines. The reason being that a portion of the money goes towards the main prize which only one person will win. Stand alone machines will tend to pay out more often than progressive machines.
Knowledge also comes into play when deciding how many coins to bet. You should always look at the payback table posted on the machine to see if a bonus is paid for playing the maximum number of coins that the machine will accept.
For example, if it’s a two-coin machine and the jackpot payout is 500 coins when you bet one coin, but it pays you 1,200 coins when you bet two coins, then that machine is paying you a 200 coin bonus for playing the maximum number of coins and you should always bet the maximum two coins to take advantage of that bonus. However, if it’s a two-coin machine that will pay you 500 coins for a one-coin bet and 1,000 coins for a two-coin bet, then there is no advantage to making the maximum bet on that machine and you should only bet the minimum amount.
Now let’s talk about money management. The first thing you have to remember when playing slot machines is that there is no skill involved. Unlike blackjack or video poker, there are no decisions you can make that will affect whether you win or lose. It is strictly luck, or the lack of it, that will determine whether or not you win. However, when you are lucky enough to get ahead (even if it’s just a little) that’s where the money management factor comes in. As stated earlier, the longer you stand in front of a machine and put in your money, the more likely you are to lose. Therefore, there is only one way you can walk away a winner and that’s to make sure that when you do win, you don’t put it all back in. You really need to set a “win goal” for yourself and to stop when you reach it. A realistic example would be a “win goal” of roughly 25 percent of your bankroll. If you started with 200,000/=, then you should stop if you win about 50,000/=. The “win goal” you decide on is up to you, but keep in mind that the higher your goal, the harder it will be to reach it, so be practical. And what if you should happen to reach your goal? Take a break! Go have a meal, visit the bar for a drink or even just take a walk around the casino. You may have the urge to keep playing, but if you can just take a break from the machines, even it’s just for a short time, you’ll have the satisfaction of leaving as a winner. If, later on, you get really bored and find that you just have to go back to the machines you can avoid a total loss by not risking more than half of your winnings and by playing on smaller denomination machines. If you made your winnings on 500/= machines, move down to 100/=. The idea now is basically to kill some time and have a little fun knowing that no matter what happens you’ll still leave as a winner.
And now, let’s move on to luck. As stated previously, the ultimate decider in whether or not you win is how lucky you are when you play. But, is there anything you can do to help you choose a “lucky” or “winning” machine? Not really, because there is no such thing as a “winning” machine. Remember, in the long run, no machine will pay out more than it takes in. There are, however, some things you could try to help you find the more generous machines and avoid the stingy ones. Keep in mind that all of the slot machine payback percentages are averages. Some machines are programmed to pay back more than average and some machines are programmed to pay less. Also, like everything else in life, machines have good cycles where they pay out more than average and bad cycles where they pay out less than average. Ultimately, what you want to find is a high-paying machine in a good cycle. Of course if I knew how to find that machine I wouldn’t be writing this story, instead I’d be standing in front of it with a $100 bill in my hand and looking for the change attendant. So, I guess you’ll have to settle for my two recommendations as to how you might be able to find the better paying machines.
First, is the “accounting” method. With this method you always start with a pre-determined number of coins and after playing them in the machine you take an accounting of your results. If you have more than you started with you stay at that machine and start another round. Just keep doing this until the machine returns less than you started with. As an example, let’s say you start with 20 coins. After playing those 20 coins you count how many you got back. If it’s more than 20 you start over again with another 20 coins and then do another accounting. If, after any accounting, you get back less than the 20 you started with, stop playing and move on to a different machine. This is an especially good method because you have to slow down your play to take periodic accountings and you will always have an accurate idea of how well you are doing.
The other method is even simpler and requires no math. It’s called the “baseball” method and is based on the principle of three strikes and you’re out. Just play a machine until it loses three times in a row, then move on to a different machine. Both of these methods will prevent you from losing a lot of money in a machine that is either set for a low payback or is going through a bad cycle; yet both will still allow you to take advantage of a high payback machine or one that is going through a good cycle. Give one of them a try on your next trip. Good luck!
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Roulette Systems and winning ways.
Is it really possible to beat the casino in roulette? Read this and decide for yourself. We have included 3 systems for your inspection.
A. The Martingale System
This is the granddaddy of all roulette betting systems. In fact, the Martingale system is probably the oldest betting system ever devised to beat the casinos. It is also the system most used by novice roulette players who give it a try on the even-money bets on odd/even or red/black.
The Martingale is a double-up-after-you-lose progressive betting system, which simply means you double the size of your next bet whenever the previous bet lost. It is based on the assumption that if you keep doubling your bet after every loss, you will eventually win and recoup your losses plus end up with a 1 unit profit.
For example if you wagered 5,000/= on red and a black number wins, you would lose the 5,000/= wagered and your next bet is doubled or 10,000/=. If a black number won again, you would bet 20,000/=. At this point in the progression you are down 15,000/= (5,000/= + 10,000/=). If you win the third bet you win 20,000/= which is enough to cover the 15,000/= lost on the previous two spins plus a profit of 5,000/=.
The allure of the Martingale betting system is that theoretically the wager has to win at some point since the chance of hitting a black number 5, 6 or even 7 consecutive times is pretty slim (see chart below). In fact you’ve got about a 99% chance of hitting a red number after 6 consecutive black numbers have won.
|
Consecutive Hits of Black |
Chance of Black coming again |
|
1
|
52% |
|
2
|
28% |
|
3 |
15% |
|
4 |
8% |
|
5 |
4%
|
|
6
|
2% |
|
1% |
|
Let's suppose you want to give the Martingale a try and you’ve got a hefty bankroll to back you up. You begin your betting progression on black with a 5,000/= starting bet and darn if it’s not your lucky day. Right from the get go you lose on the first spin, then the second, right up to the 6th spin. Already you are down 315,000/= but the odds of red hitting on the 7th spin are in your favour and when it does you’ll win back the 315,000/= plus an extra 5,000/= profit to boot. As you start to plunk down 320,000 wager (7th wager in the progression) for the privilege of winning a paltry 5,000/= (got the nerve to do this?), you hear a voice from the other side of the table say, “Sorry Sir, but the maximum bet on the outside numbers is 200,000/=”.
So even if you had the stomach and bankroll to play a Martingale progression until you won, the casinos won’t let you. That’s why there are maximum betting limits on each table.
B. Dealer Signature
A veteran dealer’s job is monotonous and consciously, or unconsciously, they can spin the wheel and the ball with the same velocity every time. This consistency from one spin to the next is known as the dealer’s signature. Some players believe that a dealer’s signature is trackable and it works like this.
Once a player believes he has found a dealer signature he observes the dealer’s release point of the ball in relation to the wheel. He knows from observing the dealer’s signature, that the ball will always travel a specific number of revolutions before dropping into the wheel. The player is trying to predict in what zone the ball will land and bet according.
The key to this betting method is to find a dealer with a consistent pattern. If you observe a pattern, you only have a few seconds to calculate where the ball will drop and to make your bet. And unless you check the statistical results of many hundreds of spins by the same dealer you will never know if the results are due to just chance or in fact due to the dealer’s consistent pattern.
Although most dealers do not have a predictable signature there are probably a few veteran dealers that do and there is no harm in trying to locate them. The worse that could happen to you if the system fails is that you will due no worse then if you just blindly wagered on a few numbers.
C. Biased Wheel
The strategy is simple. If you can’t beat roulette with a betting system, you try to beat it by finding a wheel that has a bias due to some slight physical imperfection that causes some numbers to hit more frequently then probability dictates.
How do you detect if a bias exists? You have to track the winning numbers over a period of time to determine which numbers, if any, are hitting more frequently. The strategy involves checking the numbers previously hit and if you see any numbers that have hit more times then others start betting on that number.
These systems don’t work for several reasons. First, numbers that have hit more frequently over a small sampling of 36 or even 100 spins could be just due to chance and not bias. How can you prove it? You must track the winning numbers over at least 4,000 spins, a task that can take many days to accomplish. And while you’re trying to manually record the winning numbers, most casinos nowadays can analyze the data on special computer software that will readily detect a bias long before you will. And if they detect a bias from their data or observed someone winning a large sum that has been tracking a particular wheel, they would quickly replace the wheel. Yes, a long time ago it was possible to beat the casino on a biased wheel, but nowadays it is much more difficult to do.
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Video Poker Advice
This is the best advice you can get anywhere.
Most video poker machines offer returns of over 95% and some even offer returns over 100%! But you must play these machines correctly in order to get these returns. Here's how:
No Memory - The video poker machines have no memory. The random number generator insures it. Play each hand like you don't remember what happened in the last hand.
Playing Hunches - There are many who know the strategy, but still play hunches. This is fine as long as you realize that you are lowering your odds of winning for the pleasure of playing the hunch. Sometimes hunches work and it feels pretty good.
Learn the rules of the game - Make sure you know the rules of the game before you sit down to play.
Learn the different types of payout hands - Different video poker machines offer payouts for different types of poker hands. Generally, the more wild cards there are in a game, the better the poker hand has to be in order to receive a payout. Usually the games which have no wild cards offer a payout for a pair of Jacks or better. The Joker's Wild games usually offer a payout for two pair or any hand with a joker. The Deuces Wild games usually don't payout unless you have three of a kind or better.
Know who your opponent is - You are playing against the machine, not other players. Your goal is to get the highest payout hand possible. Therefore it makes no sense to try to bluff the machine by keeping unwanted cards or discarding favourable cards. You should always keep only the cards that have the best chance of yielding the largest payout.
Pick out the machine that you are going to play - All video poker machines are not equal. Different machines offer different returns so it's a good idea to pick a favourable one. Also, it is a good idea to learn how to play one machine before learning another one since the playing strategies are different between the machines.
Always bet the maximum amount when favourable - All the progressive payout machines and even many of the others offer more favourable payouts when the maximum bet is placed. On these machines, your expected winnings will increase when you place the maximum bet. You can tell if a machine offers a statistical advantage for maximum bets by multiplying the payout for a single coin by five. If the payout for five coins is greater than this then it offers a statistical advantage. For example, if a Royal Flush offers a payout of 500 coins when you bet one coin and 4000 when you bet five coins, 4000 is more than 500 * 5 = 2500 therefore you should always bet five coins.
Learn how to play the hands for maximum profits - This is the hardest step because there are 2,598,960 possible different poker hands in a standard 52 card deck. To make matters worse, the type of game (Standard Draw, Joker's Wild, and Deuces Wild) and the payout table for each of these games can alter which cards are the best ones to discard for maximum expected returns. Probably the best way to learn is to have a tutor watching you play who tells you which cards are the best to discard.
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